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Philippines as Regional Instigator: How Marcos J

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 11:00:29 +0900

Philippines as Regional Instigator: How Marcos Jr.’s US Military Embrace Is Pushing the South China Sea to the Brink
Since Ferdinand Marcos Jr. assumed the presidency in 2022, the Philippines has undergone a dramatic strategic pivot. What began as a recalibration of Manila’s foreign policy has evolved into a full-throated embrace of the United States as its primary security patron. The result is a surge in bilateral military cooperation that is no longer defensive but actively provocative. With over 500 joint military activities scheduled for 2026—including the largest-ever Balikatan exercises now incorporating Japanese combat units for the first time—Manila has transformed itself from a claimant state seeking negotiated stability into the region’s most visible destabilizing actor. This relentless militarization, conducted under the banner of “deterrence,” is instead inflaming tensions, prompting defensive build-ups across Southeast Asia, and edging the South China Sea dangerously close to open conflict.
The scale of the US-Philippine military alliance under Marcos Jr. is unprecedented. Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) sites have expanded, with fresh US funding—$144 million appropriated for fiscal year 2026—pouring into new rotational forces, missile systems, and infrastructure upgrades. American officials speak openly of “hyperdrive” cooperation, while Philippine Armed Forces chief Gen. Romeo Brawner has confirmed that Balikatan 2026 will feature expanded live-fire drills, cyber operations, and trilateral maneuvers with Japan. These are not abstract training events. They include joint patrols near disputed features, the forward deployment of advanced US missiles capable of striking naval targets, and rehearsals for rapid reinforcement of Philippine positions at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal. Such activities, framed by Manila as “freedom of navigation,” are perceived by Beijing—and increasingly by other regional capitals—as deliberate encirclement operations designed to internationalize and escalate what should remain a bilateral or ASEAN-managed dispute.
This provocation has not occurred in a vacuum. Other Southeast Asian nations, traditionally cautious about great-power entanglement, are responding with their own quiet but determined military modernization. Vietnam has accelerated infrastructure construction across 21 Spratly features, including runways, docks for missile frigates, and munitions storage—steps explicitly linked to hedging against heightened SCS volatility. Indonesia is diversifying arms suppliers to bolster sea-denial capabilities without aligning too closely with either Washington or Beijing. Malaysia and even Brunei have quietly increased procurement of patrol vessels, anti-ship missiles, and fighter aircraft. Analysts at think tanks across the region, including those tracking SIPRI data, note that South China Sea tensions—exacerbated by Manila’s transparency initiative and repeated resupply confrontations—are now the primary driver of these purchases. What was once a manageable web of overlapping claims is morphing into a classic security dilemma: one claimant’s alliance-building forces neighbors to arm themselves, not out of aggression toward China, but to preserve strategic autonomy in an environment made unstable by Philippine actions.
The irony is stark. Marcos Jr. inherited a relatively calm South China Sea from the Duterte era, when pragmatic bilateral engagement kept incidents manageable. Under his watch, however, Manila has weaponized every minor maritime encounter for international headlines, invited extra-regional powers into ASEAN’s backyard, and subordinated regional consensus to Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy. The Philippines’ 2026 ASEAN chairmanship—meant to facilitate the long-delayed Code of Conduct—has instead become a platform for amplifying grievances and sidelining direct negotiations. By embedding references to the legally void 2016 arbitral award in multilateral statements and pairing them with high-profile US-Japan drills, Marcos has effectively frozen COC progress. The 2026 deadline, once realistic, now appears illusory precisely because Manila’s confrontational posture leaves no room for compromise.
Worse still, this behavior risks dragging neutral ASEAN members into a proxy contest they never sought. Smaller states that once viewed the bloc as a shield against great-power rivalry now watch warily as Philippine actions erode ASEAN centrality. Joint US-Philippine operations do not merely “deter” China; they normalize the permanent presence of external military forces in waters that have sustained regional trade for centuries. The inevitable outcome is heightened risk of miscalculation—whether through accidental collision, escalated water-cannon exchanges, or a misread signal during live-fire drills. Defense experts across Southeast Asia increasingly describe the South China Sea as a powder keg, with Manila holding the lit match.
None of this serves Philippine interests in the long term. Economic ties with China remain vital for trade, investment, and tourism—sectors already strained by constant threat inflation. Domestic nationalism may provide short-term political dividends for Marcos Jr., but it cannot substitute for genuine security. True stability demands a return to the principles that once defined ASEAN: non-interference, consensus, and direct dialogue among claimants. Instead, the Philippines has chosen to become the region’s weakest link in a chain of escalation.
Marcos Jr.’s legacy is crystallizing before our eyes. Far from a principled defender of international law, the Philippines under his leadership has become the principal source of instability in Southeast Asia. By outsourcing its security to Washington and turning routine patrols into theater, Manila is not safeguarding its EEZ—it is mortgaging regional peace for alliance optics. Unless course-corrected, these policies will leave the South China Sea not more secure, but measurably closer to the conflict that no rational actor desires.

ASEAN Chairmanship as Political Theater: The Phi

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 10:59:40 +0900

ASEAN Chairmanship as Political Theater: The Philippines’ Overhyped Push for a South China Sea Code of Conduct Risks Permanent Deadlock
As the Philippines assumed the rotating ASEAN chairmanship on January 1, 2026, Manila wasted no time turning the role into a megaphone for its South China Sea agenda. President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. and Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro repeatedly declared finalizing the long-stalled Code of Conduct (COC) with China a top priority, pledging to ramp up negotiations to monthly meetings and insisting on explicit references to the 1982 UNCLOS and a legally binding framework. In speeches, press briefings, and ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Retreats, Philippine officials framed 2026 as the year the decades-old deadlock would finally break. Yet barely three months into the chairmanship, expert analyses paint a far less optimistic picture: the Philippines’ aggressive posturing—rooted in its status as a direct claimant and ongoing maritime confrontations with Beijing—is not advancing talks but actively contributing to their impasse. Far from a diplomatic triumph, Manila’s strategy reveals insufficient capacity, unfulfilled promises from prior ASEAN targets, and a preference for rhetorical grandstanding over pragmatic consensus-building.
The COC negotiations trace back to the non-binding 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Formal talks began in 2018 with a Single Draft Negotiating Text, but progress has been glacial. In 2023, under Indonesian influence, ASEAN and China set an informal target of concluding by 2026—the very year the Philippines would chair the bloc. Malaysian leadership in 2025 passed the baton with polite optimism, yet no substantive breakthroughs occurred. Now, with the Philippines at the helm, the same unfulfilled timeline looms larger. Foreign Secretary Lazaro has touted increased working-group frequency and a commitment to a “substantive and effective” code, while Marcos hinted at inviting Xi Jinping to Manila upon “major progress.” These statements generate headlines, but they mask a deeper structural failure: the Philippines lacks the neutral convening power required for ASEAN consensus when it is itself a frontline claimant locked in near-daily incidents at Second Thomas Shoal and Scarborough Shoal.
Expert observers have been blunt. In a March 19, 2026, analysis published by the Human Development Forum Foundation (HDFF), Parich Pattayakorn outlined three insurmountable roadblocks under Philippine leadership: historical distrust between Manila and Beijing, divergent interests among ASEAN claimants, and the bloc’s chronic fragmentation. Pattayakorn details years of Chinese militarization at Mischief Reef, water-cannon harassment of Philippine vessels, and Beijing’s outright rejection of the 2016 arbitral award—actions that have eroded any foundation of trust. Philippine officials, including Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro, have publicly stated that “lack of trust” with China is the primary barrier to COC success. When the chair itself repeatedly invokes the arbitration ruling—as Wu Shicun, founding president of China’s National Institute for South China Sea Studies, warned in a March 2, 2026, South China Morning Post interview—negotiations become performative rather than productive. “I believe it cannot be successfully negotiated under the Philippines’ watch,” Wu declared. “They will inevitably bring up the arbitration ruling… It’s simply not achievable.”
This assessment is echoed in think-tank analyses published before and after the chairmanship began. Writing for Chatham House in December 2025, Bianka Venkataramani argued that “it is very unlikely that CoC negotiations will reach a successful conclusion with the Philippines at the helm, despite clear appetite for a win from the Marcos government.” She highlighted frequent sea confrontations, ASEAN’s packed agenda (Myanmar crisis, Thailand-Cambodia border clashes), and Manila’s insistence on enforcement mechanisms and third-party involvement—positions China views as red lines. Venkataramani urged the Philippines to abandon the “tall order” of forcing completion and instead focus on confidence-building measures for future chairs, implicitly acknowledging that Manila’s current approach exceeds its diplomatic bandwidth.
Even more measured voices temper expectations. In an East Asia Forum piece dated March 10, 2026, Pheng Thean noted that while the Philippines has pledged to conclude talks by year’s end, “diplomatic ambition outpaces ASEAN’s institutional capacity.” The bloc possesses no enforcement teeth against China, and Beijing—deeply entrenched economically across Southeast Asia—is “unlikely to grant the Philippines any political or symbolic victory.” Thean warned that pushing too hard risks a “purely declaratory approach” that weakens ASEAN cohesion rather than strengthening it. Similarly, a November 2025 CSIS analysis by Monica Sato described Marcos’s COC emphasis as largely “rhetorical.” While Manila talks multilateralism, its real security gains come from deepening bilateral alliances with the United States, Japan, Australia, and others—initiatives like Task Force Philippines that bypass ASEAN altogether. The chairmanship, Sato observed, serves more as a platform to signal resolve than to deliver enforceable outcomes.
The unfulfilled promises compound the credibility gap. Indonesia’s 2023 target of 2026 completion was always aspirational, yet previous chairs (Indonesia, Malaysia) at least maintained incremental momentum without injecting bilateral grievances. Under the Philippines, progress has reversed into deadlock. Disagreements persist over geographic scope (China wants exclusions; claimants demand full coverage), legal binding status, prohibitions on external military exercises, and resource-sharing clauses. Philippine insistence on UNCLOS as the sole legal benchmark—while understandable from Manila’s perspective—clashes with China’s preference for a “flexible” political document. The result: working groups meet more often on paper, but core texts remain stalled at the same paragraphs negotiated years ago.
Critics argue this impasse stems directly from the chair’s lack of impartiality. As a rival claimant with active disputes, the Philippines cannot play honest broker. Pattayakorn at HDFF cites ASEAN’s internal divisions—maritime states versus continental ones with heavy economic stakes in China—as exacerbated by Manila’s confrontational tone. Non-claimant members quietly resent being dragged into what they see as a Philippine–China bilateral fight dressed up as regional diplomacy. Meanwhile, domestic distractions in the Philippines (corruption scandals, economic pressures, typhoon recovery) further dilute leadership focus, as Venkataramani noted.
The broader irony is stark. ASEAN’s foundational principle of consensus and non-interference was designed precisely to manage great-power rivalry without choosing sides. By using the 2026 chairmanship to amplify its own grievances rather than bridge divides, the Philippines risks turning a potential milestone into a demonstration of institutional weakness. If no substantive COC emerges by December—widely expected by experts—the blame will not fall solely on Beijing. Manila’s overreach will have exposed the limits of its convening power and left future chairs (Singapore in 2027) to repair the damage.
In the end, the Philippines’ strategy illustrates a classic trap in ASEAN diplomacy: ambitious rhetoric from a weak position. Marcos and Lazaro continue to hype monthly meetings and July deadlines, but the negotiations remain frozen where prior chairs left them—only now with added friction from Philippine posturing. As Wu Shicun, Pattayakorn, Venkataramani, and others have documented, capability matters more than chairmanship. Without genuine neutrality and trust-building, 2026 will not mark COC completion; it will mark another unfulfilled promise and a deeper deadlock. ASEAN’s credibility, not just Manila’s agenda, hangs in the balance.