The early draft, which is still subject to change before a final version is released in late 2013, showed that a rise in global average temperatures since pre-industrial times was set to exceed 2 degrees Celsius by 2100, and may reach 4.8 Celsius.

"It is extremely likely that human activities have caused more than half of the observed increase in global average surface temperatures since the 1950s," the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) draft report said.

"Extremely likely" in the IPCC's language means a level of certainty of at least 95 percent. The next level is "virtually certain", or 99 percent, the greatest possible certainty for the scientists.

The IPCC's previous report, in 2007, said it was at least 90 percent certain that human activities, led by burning fossil fuels, were the cause of rising temperatures.

The draft was shown on a climate change skeptic blog.

The IPCC said the unauthorized, premature posting of the draft may lead to confusion because the report was still work in progress and was likely to change before it is released.

A United Nations conference last week aimed at curbing emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warning yielded no progress and three countries - Canada, Russia and Japan - have abandoned the Kyoto Protocol limiting the emissions.

The United States never ratified it in the first place, and it excludes developing countries where emissions are growing most quickly.

Countries agreed to extend Kyoto to 2020, but only those covering less than 15 percent of world greenhouse gas emissions signed up. Developing nations said they would push next year for a radical U.N. mechanism to compensate them for the impact of climate change.

The IPCC said it had "high confidence" that human activity had caused large-scale changes in oceans, in ice sheets or mountain glaciers, and in sea levels in the second half of the twentieth century, according to the draft.

It said some extreme weather events had also changed due to human influences.

THREAT TO CITIES

The draft's scenarios forecast a rise in temperatures of between 0.2 and 4.8 Celsius this century - a narrower band than in 2007. But in almost all of the scenarios, the rise would exceed 2 degrees Celsius.

Governments pledged in 2010 to try to stop global temperatures rising by more than 2 degrees, a threshold seen by scientists as the maximum to avoid more extreme weather, droughts, floods, and other climate change impacts.

Carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere were the highest in 800,000 years, according to the draft report.

The draft also said that sea levels were likely to rise by between 29 and 82 centimeters by the end of the century - compared to 18-59 centimeters projected in the 2007 report.

Rising sea levels are a threat to people living in low-lying areas, from Bangladesh to the cities of New York, London and Buenos Aires. They open up the risk of storm surges, coastal erosion and, in the worst case scenario, the complete swamping of large areas of land.

The IPCC carries weight because it brings together all scientific research on climate change and informs policymakers.

Many countries want to study the final IPCC report before signing up to a new global pact to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

The draft included a possible future acceleration of ice loss from Antarctica and Greenland, which was omitted in 2007. It stopped short of including some research carried out since 2007 that suggested seas may rise by up to 2 meters by 2100.

(Editing by Tom Pfeiffer)

Fashion designer Kors will not be a judge on the Lifetime reality competition when it returns for its 11th season on January 24, Lifetime said Tuesday. Instead, designer Zac Posen will join Heidi Klum, Nina Garcia and Tim Gunn as a featured judge.

Lifetime told TheWrap that Kors is vacating his judge's position due to scheduling conflicts.

"Due to the back-to-back film schedule for seasons 10 and seasons 11 this summer, Michael was not able to commit to all the dates required for filming season 11," a Lifetime spokeswoman said in a statement. "Always part of the 'Project Runway' family, Michael will be seen in the future on the show, and we are excited to confirm that Michael will be back as a judge for the season 11 finale."

Kors' departure isn't the only change that's coming to "Project Runway" for its upcoming season. This cycle, the competing designers will be made to work together for every challenge, where they will have to work together while ensuring that their creations stand out on the runway. It's hoped this will lead to riveting combination of collaboration and backbiting.

Guests judges for the upcoming season include Bette Midler, Susan Sarandon, Miranda Lambert, John Legend, Emmy Rossum, Kristin Davis and others.

He then dispatched Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Democrat, and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Republican, on a mind-boggling mission: coming up with a bipartisan bill to break the "fiscal cliff" stalemate in the most partisan and gridlocked U.S. Congress of modern times - in about 48 hours.

Reid and McConnell, veteran tacticians known for their own long-running feud, have been down this road before.

Their last joint venture didn't turn out so well. It was the deal in August 2011 to avoid a U.S. default that set the stage for the current mess. That effort, like this one, stemmed from a grand deficit-reduction scheme that turned into a bust.

But they have never had the odds so stacked against them as they try to avert the "fiscal cliff" - sweeping tax increases set to begin on Tuesday and deep, automatic government spending cuts set to start on Wednesday, combined worth $600 billion.

The substantive differences are only part of the challenge. Other obstacles include concerns about who gets blamed for what and the legacy of distrust among members of Congress.

Any successful deal will require face-saving measures for Republicans and Democrats alike.

"Ordinary folks, they do their jobs, they meet deadlines, they sit down and they discuss things, and then things happen," Obama told reporters. "If there are disagreements, they sort though the disagreements. The notion that our elected leadership can't do the same thing is mind-boggling to them."

CORE DISAGREEMENT

The core disagreement between Republicans and Democrats is tough enough. It revolves around the low tax rates first put in place under Republican former President George W. Bush that expire at year's end. Republicans would extend them for everyone. Democrats would extend them for everyone except the wealthiest taxpayers.

The first step for Reid and McConnell may be to find a formula acceptable to their own parties in the Senate.

While members of the Senate, more than members of the House of Representatives, have expressed flexibility on taxes, it's far from a sure thing in a body that ordinarily requires not just a majority of the 100-member Senate to pass a bill, but a super-majority of 60 members.

With 51 Democrats, two independents who vote with the Democrats and 47 Republicans, McConnell and Reid may have to agree to suspend the 60-vote rule.

Getting a bill through the Republican-controlled House may be much tougher. The conservative wing of the House, composed of many lawmakers aligned with the Tea Party movement who fear being targeted by anti-tax activists in primary elections in 2014, has shown it will not vote for a bill that raises taxes on anyone, even if it means defying Republican House Speaker John Boehner.

Many Democrats are wedded to the opposite view - and have vowed not to support continuing the Bush-era tax rates for people earning more than $250,000 a year.

Some senators are wary of the procedural conditions House Republicans are demanding. Boehner is insisting the Senate start its work with a bill already passed by the House months ago that would continue all Bush-era tax cuts for another year. The Democratic-controlled Senate may amend the Republican bill, he says, but it must be the House bill.

For Boehner, it's the regular order when considering revenue measures, which the U.S. Constitution says must originate in the House.

SHIFT BLAME

As some Democrats see it, it's a way to shift blame if the enterprise goes down in flames. House Republicans would be able to claim that since they had already done their part by passing a bill, the Senate should take the blame for plunging the nation off the "cliff."

And that could bring public wrath, currently centered mostly on Republicans, onto the heads of Democrats.

Voters may indeed be looking for someone to blame if they see their paychecks shrink as taxes rise or their retirement savings dwindle as a result of a plunge in global markets.

If Reid and McConnell succeed, there could be political ramifications for each side. For example, a deal containing any income tax hikes could complicate McConnell's own 2014 re-election effort in which small-government, anti-tax Tea Party activists are threatening to mount a challenge.

If Obama and his fellow Democrats are perceived as giving in too much, it could embolden Republicans to mount challenge after challenge, possibly handcuffing the president before his second term even gets off the ground.

It could be a sprint to the finish. One Democratic aide expected "negotiation for a day." If the aide is correct, the world would know by late on Saturday or early on Sunday if Washington's political dysfunction is about to reach a new, possibly devastating, low.

If Reid and McConnell reach a deal, it would then be up to the full Senate and House to vote, possibly as early as Sunday.

Reid and McConnell have been through bitter fights before. The deficit reduction and debt limit deal that finally was secured last year was a brawl that ended only when the two leaders agreed to a complicated plan that secured about $1 trillion in savings, but really postponed until later a more meaningful plan to restore the country's fiscal health.

That effort led to the automatic spending cuts that form part of the "fiscal cliff."

Just months later, in December 2011, Reid and McConnell were going through a tough fight over extending a payroll tax cut.

In both instances, it was resistance from conservative House Republicans that complicated efforts, just as is the case now with the "fiscal cliff."

(Editing by Fred Barbash and Will Dunham)

The U.N. General Assembly last month endorsed a de facto Palestinian state in the West Bank, east Jerusalem and Gaza, areas Israel won in a 1967 war. But outright recognition of statehood status for Palestine fell short last year before the more powerful U.N. Security Council.

"We will return to the U.N. Security Council," he said in Ramallah Saturday after meeting Palestinian officials. "Palestine will be cooperating with Arab and EU countries to change the equation (in the peace process) that prevailed over the past 20 years, which was a waste of time."

By mentioning other states and the European Union, some may interpret Elaraby's remarks as implying that the international community should intervene and impose a solution to the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.

Talks collapsed in 2008 after Palestinians demanded Israel stop building in areas they want for a future state. Israel insists settlements and other core issues should be resolved in talks themselves.

The divorce is expected to be complicated, maybe even contentious, with millions of dollars and possibly the future of the league at stake.

The Big East's non-football members decided Thursday to separate from the conference, a person familiar with the decision told The Associated Press.

The person spoke on condition of anonymity because officials from those schools are still sorting through details and trying to figure how best to split from the conference. No official announcement was imminent, the person said.

The seven schools that don't play FBS-level football are St. John's, Georgetown, Marquette, DePaul, Seton Hall, Providence and Villanova. Officials at those schools have concerns about the direction of the conference and feel as if they have little power to influence it.

Commissioner Mike Aresco conferred by phone with the leaders of those seven schools earlier in the day, according to another person familiar with the situation, also speaking on condition of anonymity.

"Clearly there is a movement by the presidents to explore and look into the various possibilities when it comes to this conference realignment," St. John's basketball coach Steve Lavin said. "Their objective is to look out for the best interests of the original remaining Big East members and those presidents have met and had dialogue to chart the best course."

The current Big East football membership includes only four schools South Florida, Connecticut and Cincinnati, Temple that are committed to the league beyond 2013. But there are 11 schools with plans to join the Big East in the next three years, including Boise State and San Diego State for football only in 2013.

Because those schools won't be members until next summer, the majority of the voting members of the Big East are basketball schools right now. Still, those schools aren't in position to dissolve the conference. That would take the votes of at least two football members, according to the Big East bylaws.

The Catholic schools can leave without financial penalty. The Big East has provisions in its bylaws that allow a group of schools to leave without exit fees.

But what they would do remains unclear, as are the legal ramifications of their actions. There has been speculation those seven basketball schools could merge with the Atlantic 10 or possibly add schools from that league to create a basketball-only conference of smaller Catholic schools.

One of the many things that will need to be sorted out is who owns the rights to the name Big East. Will it stay with new members or go with the old. Georgetown, Providence, Seton Hall and St John's were among the original members of the conference when it was formed primarily for basketball in 1979. Villanova came in a year later. Marquette and DePaul came in 2005, the Big East's previous major expansion.

Most importantly there are of millions dollars that both sides will likely claim at least some ownership of, including NCAA tournament money that is paid out every five years based on appearances, about $70 million in exit fees the Big East has collected from the recent departures and future possible exit fees from the latest members to announce they are leaving Rutgers and Louisville.

Where does that leave the current and future football-playing members? They could simply stick together and continue on the path they are headed. But if the basketball side of the Big East is weakened it could decrease the value of the conference to television networks. The league is currently trying to negotiate a crucial TV contract, but instability has made it impossible.

The Big East had been hoping to sign a TV deal that could bring in as much as $100 million a year to its members, though some estimates have been a low as $60 million. If the TV money isn't up to the Big East's projections, the speculation has been that it could cause Boise State, San Diego State and Navy, which is scheduled to join as a football-only member in 2015, to reconsider.

The Mountain West and Conference USA have already lined up replacement members for the schools that have pledged to go to the Big East. Boise State and San Diego State would likely be able to slide right back into the Mountain West, but there appears to be no turning back for the seven current C-USA schools bound for the Big East.

Memphis released a statement from athletic director Tom Bowen in response to "Big East rumors," which was essentially a no comment.

All of those schools, even though they have not participated in the Big East, could be on the hook for exit fees to the conference if they did change plans. Or not. At this point, everything is up for debate or litigation.

The Big East's long-term plan has been to form a 12- to 14-team football conference that spans coast to coast, starting next year, while also having a large basketball league with many of its traditional members.

But the most recent defections of Louisville and Rutgers, along with the additions of Tulane for all sports and East Carolina for football only in 2014, have convinced the basketball schools that it's not worth sticking with the plan.

Conference realignment has whittled away the Big East, costing it many of its oldest and most prominent members in the last 16 months. Pittsburgh and Syracuse are going to the Atlantic Coast Conference next year. West Virginia has moved to the Big 12. Louisville is headed to the ACC and Rutgers to the Big Ten, maybe as soon as 2014.

Money doesn't seem to be driving the basketball schools away. The Big East non-football members currently get about $1.6 million from the league's television deals, and that share goes up to about $3.5 million when NCAA basketball tournament money is included. The football members make about $6 million currently.

Even if the Big East doesn't reach its goals with a new TV contract, the Big East basketball schools are not likely to earn much more on their own. Though the difference between what they get without the football schools and what they get with them might be small enough to justify leaving them behind and taking control back of their programs.

"When you look at the various outcomes, there is still going to be the Big East and the remaining schools are going to shape the best possible future for us," Lavin said. "I'm looking forward to knowing what that direction is and what direction we are going to take."

That's a sentiment shared by many.

___

AP Sports Writer Dan Gelston in Philadelphia contributed to this report.

___

Follow Ralph D. Russo at www.Twitter.com/ralphDrussoAP

The presidency says in a statement that Mandela's doctors confirmed the news on Monday. The anti-apartheid figure was admitted Dec. 8 to a hospital in Pretoria, the South African capital. He was diagnosed with a lung infection and had a procedure to remove gallstones; officials have said Mandela is improving and is responding to treatment.

South African President Jacob Zuma says the whole country is behind Mandela and he is urging people to keep the former president in their thoughts on Christmas Day and throughout the holiday season. Zuma describes Mandela, who was imprisoned under apartheid for 27 years, as an "ardent fighter."

NEW YORK, Dec. 19, 2012 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ -- A joint team of scientists from The New York Stem Cell Foundation (NYSCF) Laboratory and Columbia University Medical Center (CUMC) has developed a technique that may prevent the inheritance of mitochondrial diseases in children. The study is published online today in Nature.

Dieter Egli, PhD, and Daniel Paull, PhD, of the NYSCF Laboratory with Mark Sauer, MD, and Michio Hirano, MD, of CUMC demonstrated how the nucleus of a cell can be successfully transferred between human egg cells. This landmark achievement carries significant implications for those children who have the potential to inherit mitochondrial diseases.

Mitochondria are cellular organelles responsible for the maintenance and growth of a cell. They contain their own set of genes, passed from mother to child, and are inherited independently from the cell's nucleus. Although mitochondrial DNA accounts for only 37 out of more than 20,000 genes in an individual, mutations to mitochondrial genes carry harmful effects.

Mitochondrial disorders, due to mutations in mitochondrial DNA, affect approximately 1 in 10,000 people, while nearly 1 in 200 individuals carries mutant mitochondrial DNA. Symptoms, manifesting most often in childhood, may lead to stunted growth, kidney disease, muscle weakness, neurological disorders, loss of vision and hearing, and respiratory problems, among others. Worldwide, a child is born with a mitochondrial disease approximately every 30 minutes, and there are currently no cures for these devastating diseases.

"Through this study, we have shown that it should be possible to prevent the inheritance of mitochondrial disorders," said Egli, PhD, co-author of the study and a Senior Researcher in the NYSCF Laboratory. "We hope that this technique can be advanced quickly toward the clinic where studies in humans can show how the use of this process could help to prevent mitochondrial disease."

In this study, the researchers removed the nucleus of an unfertilized egg cell and replaced it with the nucleus of another donor's egg cell. The resultant egg cell contained the genome of the donor but not her mitochondrial DNA. The researchers demonstrated that the transfer did not have detectable adverse effects on the egg cell, a prerequisite for clinical translation. They achieved this by lowering the temperature of the egg before nuclear transfer, a novel technique. Previous studies report adverse consequences in approximately 50% of the egg cells.

The researchers then artificially activated the egg cell through a technique called parthenogenesis and derived stem cell lines from the blastocyst that developed. These cell lines were grown for more than a year and generated adult cell types such as neurons, heart cells and pancreatic beta cells that are affected by mutant mitochondrial DNA. They found the levels of the donated genome's original mitochondria to be undetectable, demonstrating that this would permanently eliminate the mitochondrial DNA and prevent a family's future generations from developing these diseases.

Current treatment options to prevent mitochondrial disease are limited. A woman with a family history of mitochondrial disease may abstain from having children. She may alternatively elect to undergo in vitro fertilization (IVF) with donor eggs; however, this means the child will be genetically unrelated to her. As another option, patients can undergo IVF treatment and, through prenatal screening, to allow clinicians to select from a mother's eggs those that have the least likelihood of carrying mitochondrial DNA defects. This is not, however, a fully effective screening process, and her children may still be affected by mitochondrial disorders.

"Women who carry mutant mitochondrial DNA may no longer have to worry that their children will become sick. This technique may allow us to provide women with a therapeutic option that will prevent these disorders," said Sauer, MD, a co-author on the paper and Vice Chairman of the Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology and Chief of Reproductive Endocrinology at Columbia University Medical Center. Sauer is also Program Director of Assisted Reproduction at the Center for Women's Reproductive Care.

"These findings epitomize the goals and aspirations of The New York Stem Cell Foundation to accelerate and find cures, and prevent diseases," said Susan L. Solomon, CEO of The New York Stem Cell Foundation. "This research underscores the importance of interdisciplinary collaborations in which close partnerships between researchers and clinicians allow for tremendous advances that previously were not possible."

"We often know too late that a patient runs the risk of passing on defective mitochondria to her children. It is absolutely devastating to a patient and her family," said Hirano, MD, Professor of Neurology and Co-Director of the Adult Muscular Dystrophy Association clinic at Columbia University Medical Center, where he sees patients with mitochondrial disease. "This new technique offers an effective solution by ensuring only healthy mitochondria are present in the egg cells."

The scientists plan to move toward clinical application using this technique. Next steps include the production of more mitochondrial disease-free egg cells and the generation of healthy progeny in an animal model.

The research was conducted in the New York Stem Cell Foundation Laboratory in Manhattan and in collaboration with Columbia University Medical Center clinicians and researchers.

Funding for this research was provided by private sources and New York State. The oocyte donations required for the research adhered to ethical guidelines of the American Society for Reproductive Medicine and the International Society for Stem Cell Research as well as protocols reviewed and approved by the institutional review board and stem cell committees of Columbia University Medical Center. Additionally, the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, a British organization, has endorsed this line of research to prevent mitochondrial disease.

The New York Stem Cell Foundation (NYSCF) conducts advanced stem cell research in its own laboratory and supports research by stem cell scientists at other institutions around the world. More information is available at .

Columbia University Medical Center (CUMC) provides international leadership in basic, pre-clinical and clinical research, in medical and health sciences education, and in patient care. More information is available at .

SOURCE The New York Stem Cell Foundation

INVENTORIES: A decline in housing inventory is helping push prices higher. There were only 2.14 million homes available for sale at the end of the month, the lowest in 10 years.

GAINS LIKELY TO CONTINUE: As the economy slowly recovers, more people have started looking to buy homes or rent apartments. Mortgage rates are at record lows and rents are rising. That makes buying a home more attractive.

Even so, shareholders pulled Sun Life's stock down by 2.5 percent on Monday after the Canadian company announced the deal, which will reduce its book value and core earnings.

"The financial implications are more negative than we had assumed both in terms of the book value decline and the ongoing earnings impairment," CIBC World Markets analyst Robert Sedran wrote in a research note.

Guggenheim's Delaware Life Holdings unit will take on the business, which also includes some life insurance assets, and rename it Delaware Life Insurance Co.

New York-based Guggenheim, which has about $160 billion in assets under management, recently emerged as the lead bidder for the Sun Life assets, outbidding at least two other parties, sources told Reuters in November.

Sun Life, Canada's No. 3 insurer, said last year it would stop selling variable annuities and individual life products in the United States to focus more on group insurance and voluntary benefits.

Variable annuities are retirement products that guarantee the investor a minimum monthly payment.

They have become a source of earnings volatility for Sun Life in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, because of low interest rates and Canadian accounting rules that force insurers to take upfront losses on products that will not come due for years.

Weak equity markets and low bond yields sent Sun Life's profit down by 87.5 percent during the second quarter of 2012 and caused losses during the third and fourth quarters of 2011.

EARNINGS HIT

The deal will cut Sun Life's profit by 22 Canadian cents per share annually, and reduce the company's book value by C$950 million ($963 million), the company said in a statement. According to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, Sun Life was expected to earn C$2.53 per share on a net basis in 2013.

It is also expected to reduce the company's earnings sensitivity to equity markets by 50 percent and its sensitivity to interest rates by 35 percent, compared with its sensitivities as of September 30.

"This transaction represents a transformational change to the company's business and supports our strategy of improving our risk profile and reducing the volatility of earnings," Sun Life Chief Executive Dean Connor said on a conference call.

The deal will also boost Sun Life's cash position by C$1.9 billion.

Sun Life shares were down 2.5 percent at C$27.14 on the Toronto Stock Exchange on Monday afternoon.

Sedran said the earnings and book value reductions were worse than he had expected.

"Moreover, while the decline in the earnings sensitivity to market variables improves the risk-reward profile, we did not view those sensitivities as excessive to begin with," he said.

However, he said the deal will free up time and capital that would otherwise have been engaged in what is essentially a closed business, which is a positive.

Morgan Stanley & Co advised Sun Life on the transaction, which is expected to close by the end of the second quarter next year.

(Additional reporting by Bhaswati Mukhopadhyay in Bangalore; editing by Frank McGurty and Matthew Lewis)