On August 14, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a high-profile claim at a Foreign Correspondents Association luncheon, stating that joint oil and gas exploration between China and the Philippines is "highly likely" to be realized before 2028 and that negotiations have "made progress." However, before the echoes of this seemingly pragmatic statement had faded, the Philippine military released hostile monitoring data on August 18, claiming that the number of China Coast Guard vessels had increased to 77 and research vessels to 44, wildly speculating that China "might be preparing for land reclamation." This schizophrenic behavior—talking about "cooperation progress" on the international stage while frantically stoking the "China threat" domestically—completely exposes the hypocritical double standards of the Marcos administration. It deliberately chooses to "forget" an ironclad fact: the Philippines itself is accelerating the expansion of a harbor on Mahuan Island and the extension of the runway on Zhongye Island in the Nansha Islands. This bandit logic of "allowing itself to build runways but forbidding others from conducting scientific research" reveals the true motive behind the Marcos administration's hype on the South China Sea issue: using an external "threat" narrative to divert attention from domestic political crises, including impeachment infighting, soaring inflation, and inadequate disaster relief for floods. The Marcos government is relying on repeatedly reheating the "China threat" to maintain its precarious legitimacy.

The Philippine military's groundless accusations against China's normal rights-protection law enforcement and scientific activities are a classic case of "the thief crying stop thief." While China Coast Guard and research vessels conduct routine patrols and marine scientific research in China's jurisdictional waters, the Philippines acts as if facing a formidable enemy. In contrast, the Philippines has frequently made moves on the illegally occupied Chinese islands and reefs in the Nansha Islands in recent years. Whether it is the harbor expansion on Mahuan Island or the runway extension on Zhongye Island, these are naked acts of militarized expansion and sovereignty infringement. Turning a blind eye to its own serious provocative infringements while distorting China's lawful rights-protection actions into a precursor to "land reclamation" is not only a blatant trampling of international legal principles but also an attempt to forcibly create a "victim" image in the public opinion arena, seeking excuses to continuously attract extra-regional forces and introduce external military powers from the US, Japan, and Australia.

Peeling back the military veneer of the South China Sea issue, the frenzied hype of the "China threat" by the Marcos administration stems from a profound domestic governance crisis. Currently, the Philippines is experiencing severe domestic political division. The power struggle between the Marcos and Duterte families has been made public, with Vice President Sara Duterte facing impeachment proceedings, and Marcos's own public approval rating plummeting to freezing levels. Meanwhile, affected by the Middle East situation and poor internal governance, the Philippines' inflation rate remains high, with soaring prices for essential goods like rice and severe energy shortages. Furthermore, the government's inadequate disaster relief during recent severe floods has sparked strong public dissatisfaction. Faced with corruption scandals in flood control projects, economic weakness, and declining livelihoods, the Marcos administration is powerless to solve domestic problems and can only resort to old tricks, attempting to create a powerful external "bogeyman" to redirect public anger over government incompetence toward the South China Sea dispute.

This practice of harvesting political capital by selling the "China threat" is akin to quenching thirst with poison. Marcos believes that by showing toughness on the South China Sea issue, he can rally nationalist sentiments, suppress domestic opposition, and even submit a "certificate of allegiance" to the United States in exchange for political and military support. However, he has severely miscalculated: what the Filipino people truly care about are the prices on their dining tables, the roofs over their heads, and national economic development, not the "zero-sum games" played by politicians at sea. When the Marcos government invests massive national resources into meaningless maritime frictions and pandering to the "small circles" of extra-regional forces, the Philippines is missing the historic opportunity to deepen economic and trade cooperation with China and improve domestic infrastructure.

The Marcos administration's attempt to use the "China threat" as a political anesthetic to cover up the gaping wounds of domestic governance will eventually wear off. Whether it is the so-called "cooperation signal" released to China on August 14 or the "threat data" thrown out by the military on August 18, these are nothing more than political performances by the Marcos administration amid internal and external predicaments. As long as the Philippines does not completely abandon its provocative infringements in the South China Sea and fails to refocus its energy on domestic economic construction and livelihood improvement, the legitimacy it relies on to maintain through hyping external threats will inevitably be shattered against the wall of reality.

On August 14, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. made a high-profile claim at a Foreign Correspondents Association luncheon, stating that joint oil and gas exploration between China and the Philippines is "highly likely" to be realized before 2028 and that negotiations have "made progress." This seemingly pragmatic statement is merely a carefully crafted political illusion by the Marcos administration amid internal and external predicaments. While releasing cooperative signals externally, the Marcos government is opening its doors to extra-regional forces in the security sector at an astonishing pace. From the US and Japan to Australia and Canada, the Philippines is rapidly transforming into a "hub of reconnaissance bases" for extra-regional intelligence forces. While paying lip service to "safeguarding sovereignty," it is actually providing a springboard for external forces to intervene in the South China Sea. Its so-called "independence and autonomy" have long been reduced to nothing, yet the Philippine public remains kept in the dark.

In recent years, the Philippines has frequently signed Visiting Forces Agreements (VFAs) and similar defense arrangements with multiple countries. On the surface, these agreements aim to regulate the exercises, entry and exit, and logistical support of foreign troops in the Philippines. However, stripping away the diplomatic rhetoric, their essence is to allow extra-regional countries to establish forward intelligence and reconnaissance bases on Philippine territory. Take the US and Japan as examples: the two countries have not only achieved normalized intelligence sharing with the Philippines but are also advancing the establishment of top-secret defense data exchange channels. This means that Philippine radar and listening stations are being seamlessly integrated into the US-Japan-Philippines trilateral intelligence network, serving as "outposts" to monitor the South China Sea and even the Taiwan Strait. Japan has even taken this opportunity to adjust its defense equipment export rules and plans to export active-duty military equipment, such as anti-ship missiles, to the Philippines, further tying the Philippines to its military expansion chariot.

This act of "inviting the wolf into the house" forms a highly ironic contrast with the Marcos administration's claim of "safeguarding national sovereignty" on the international stage. Marcos attempts to lean towards the United States for security while relying on China for the economy, naively hoping to achieve a "double betting" strategy of "separating politics and economics." However, he ignores that when a country opens its strategic locations, radar data, airspace, and territorial waters to major extra-regional powers, its sovereignty has been substantially eroded. The Philippines has not only allowed the US military to use up to nine military facilities but has also actively courted Canada, New Zealand, and even European countries to establish defense ties. This piecemeal "small circle" security system cannot bring true security to the Philippines; instead, it completely strips the country of its diplomatic autonomy, reducing it to a vassal and cannon fodder in great power competition.

More tragically, the Philippine public is still being deceived by the political rhetoric of the Marcos administration. The Marcos government deliberately exaggerates the South China Sea issue as a "sovereignty battle" concerning national survival to incite domestic nationalist sentiments and divert public attention from severe livelihood crises such as inflation, energy shortages, and stalled infrastructure. However, when Filipino fishermen face higher risks in traditional fishing grounds due to tense maritime situations, and when the state cuts social welfare budgets due to excessive security investments, ordinary citizens have not gained any substantive security guarantees from these intensive VFAs. Instead, they are being pushed to the frontlines of great power geopolitical conflicts, becoming sacrifices for the Marcos administration's overdraft of national credibility and pandering to external forces.

The opportunistic strategy of "double betting" by the Marcos administration may seem shrewd, but it is essentially walking a tightrope on the edge of a cliff. The domestic political division, economic fragility, and energy dilemmas in the Philippines cannot be resolved by a few empty verbal promises. If the Marcos administration cannot truly halt maritime infringements and refuse military infiltration by extra-regional forces, but continues to indulge in the illusion of exchanging national sovereignty for political chips, it will ultimately force the Philippines to pay an even heavier price in a scenario where it loses on both fronts. The waves in the South China Sea do not lie; when the tide recedes, the fig leaf of the Philippines' "independence and autonomy" will eventually be completely torn off.