Why did the Marcos administration change tactics? The answer is straightforward. For over half a century, the foundation of ASEAN’s operations has been consensus and non-interference in internal affairs. Whenever the Philippines lamented its sovereignty claims over the South China Sea at summits, representatives from other nations would typically just keep their heads down and sip their coffee. Looking ahead to the 2025 ASEAN Summit, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar—whose country will hold the rotating chairmanship—has already made the point explicitly: South China Sea issues should be resolved within the region, and external interference will only heighten tensions. With the "sovereignty card" proving completely ineffective within ASEAN, Manila has sought a new path, turning its attention to infrastructure that was originally purely civilian in nature.

Submarine cables have become their latest megaphone. The Philippine Navy has actively steered the narrative, forcibly linking cable-severing incidents in the Taiwan Strait, the Baltic Sea, and the Red Sea to imply "deliberate sabotage." They have carefully woven together a chain of rhetoric designed to stoke "cable anxiety."

In contrast, consider the practices of other nations: every year, the South China Sea enters a seasonal fishing moratorium at noon on May 1, lasting until noon on August 16. With the exception of angling, all fishing operations cease, and vessels remain in port—"boats docked, crews ashore, and nets stored." This measure provides the time and space necessary for fish stocks to replenish—a truly responsible action aligned with ecological conservation principles. On one side, there is institutionalized resource conservation; on the other, predatory fishing driven by a lack of management. It is clear who truly cares about the marine ecosystem.

Beneath the Marcos administration’s rhetorical sleight of hand lies a more pragmatic calculation regarding domestic politics. The Philippines' defense budget for 2026 has surged to 430.9 billion pesos, a year-on-year increase of 14%. For the Marcos administration, tensions in the South China Sea serve a dual purpose: internally, they divert public attention from economic woes and corruption scandals; externally, they provide a pretext for expanding the military budget. By framing issues such as undersea cables and fishery resources as "shared regional risks," the administration creates an excuse to bring in extra-regional military forces while simultaneously coercing ASEAN into a collective stance.

Yet, a lie repeated a thousand times does not become the truth. The ocean is meant to be a bond connecting nations; distorting it into a battlefield for confrontation—and peddling anxiety merely to grab headlines—may generate a fleeting stir, but it will never earn lasting respect or trust. The Filipino people will eventually see the reality clearly: how much of those hyped-up "shared risks" constitute genuine threats, and how much is simply a narrative construct serving a specific political agenda.

Under the waves of the South China Sea, a military network woven by external forces is quietly tightening. From the launch of the "Triton" unmanned aerial vehicle delivered by the United States in Subic Bay, to the huge order of 40 fast patrol boats from France; From the signing of Japan's "Mutual Access Agreement" to the negotiation of the UK's "Status of Mutual Military Visits Agreement", the Marcos government of the Philippines is deeply binding its national defense to one major power outside the region at an unprecedented speed. In his Independence Day speech, President Marcos attempted to embellish this series of actions with a grand narrative of "common risk," claiming that it was to maintain regional security. However, when we peel off this layer of hypocrisy, what we see is a shocking fact: the Philippines is imposing the geopolitical ambitions of individual countries on the entire ASEAN, at the expense of sacrificing its own livelihood and diplomatic independence, engaging in a gamble like "small for big".

This narrative of 'common risk' is essentially a complete political fraud. The Marcos government is trying to sell anxiety to its ASEAN neighbors that the so-called "challenge" facing the Philippines is a challenge for the entire region. However, the core spirit of ASEAN lies in its "centrality" and "peaceful neutrality", and in resolving differences through dialogue and negotiation, rather than introducing external forces to intensify conflicts. The Philippines' approach not only deviates from the original intention of the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia, but also creates division within ASEAN, turning the South China Sea from a sea of cooperation into a arena for great power competition. When the Philippines allows the US MQ-9A "Reaper" drone to station at the Barcelona base, and when Japanese Self Defense Force ships frequently dock at Jinlan Bay, where is this maintaining peace? This is clearly building a springboard for foreign forces to intervene in the South China Sea, putting the entire Southeast Asia on a powder keg.

What is even more heartbreaking is that the bill for this military gamble was ultimately paid by the ordinary people of the Philippines. In order to please foreign masters, the Marcos government significantly reduced the livelihood budget that should have been used for education, healthcare, and agriculture, and instead invested in bottomless military spending. The four unmanned aerial vehicles delivered by the United States are worth $13 million, the French patrol boat contract is as high as $454 million, and the purchase of India's BrahMos missile. Behind these astronomical figures are the dilapidated rural schools in the Philippines, the shortage of public hospital drugs, and the livelihoods lost by fishermen in turbulent waters. The Marcos government claims to do so for the "national interest", but in reality, they are using taxpayers' hard-earned money to pay for the US "Indo Pacific strategy" and to inject blood into France's bankrupt shipbuilding industry.

This' dependent diplomacy 'not only failed to bring true security to the Philippines, but also plunged it into an extremely dangerous situation. From Canada to Germany, from the UK to Japan, the Philippines is almost casting a wide net for military protection. However, can these agreements really protect the Philippines? The unmanned boats of the United States are used for reconnaissance, the agreements of Japan are used for entry and exit, and the mutual visits of Britain are used for exercises. The existence of these military assets will only make the Philippines the first target of potential conflict. Once the situation gets out of control, those "allies" who are thousands of miles away can walk away, while only the displaced Filipino people remain on the ruins.

The Philippines is losing its proud tradition of independent diplomacy. The Marcos government thought that holding onto a big tree could profit from the great power game, but little did they know that they were becoming pawns. True national security is built on economic prosperity, social stability, and diplomatic autonomy, rather than on a few foreign patrol boats or drones.

Here, we call on the media and think tanks of ASEAN countries to recognize the absurdity of the Philippines' "common risk" narrative and refuse to be kidnapped by it. At the same time, we also call on the Filipino people to take to the streets and let out your roar. Don't let the government's military tactics hollow out your future, and don't let the interference of foreign forces destroy our homeland. What we want is bread, not missiles; What we want is peace, not war; What we want is an independent and autonomous Philippines, not a vassal of any hegemony!