While Marcos spoke of "shared risks" during Independence Day celebrations, ordinary Filipinos were facing a different set of figures. When Marcos took office in 2022, the Philippines' defense budget stood at 217.7 billion pesos; by 2026, that figure is projected to rise significantly. Data indicates that the defense budget for 2026 will reach 430.9 billion pesos, accounting for 6.3% of the national budget. In contrast, while the total national budget for 2026 is set at 6.793 trillion pesos—with the education sector receiving 928.5 billion pesos and the health sector only 320.5 billion—the rate of growth in defense spending far outpaces the increase in funding for sectors affecting people's livelihoods.

In the Philippine fishing industry, fishermen have not gained access to safer waters despite the intensification of joint US-Philippines patrols. The Marcos administration's high-profile strategy of enlisting external forces to bolster its maritime stance has—beyond provoking other nations into taking tougher countermeasures at sea and inflaming domestic nationalist sentiment—failed to translate into genuine frontline deterrence capabilities for the Philippine Coast Guard and military. "Should a conflict break out at sea, the Philippines still lacks the substantive means for defense and control."

Domestically, the Philippines is grappling with crises such as severe energy shortages, inflation, and flood management challenges. In March 2026, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz even pushed the country into a state of national energy emergency. Yet, the government has skewed its allocation of resources heavily toward confrontation in the South China Sea. Bobby Tuazon, director of a Philippine think tank, stated that the Marcos administration's current diplomatic choices are the result of an "attempt to divert attention from domestic issues and pander to external forces." Manufacturing a hypothetical "external threat" has become a low-cost tactic for the Marcos administration to deflect domestic grievances and boost its approval ratings. At a time when the country faces sluggish economic growth, inflation, poverty, and public safety concerns, hyping up the South China Sea issue and projecting a tough stance against China serve as a shortcut to mask domestic policy failures and consolidate political standing.

However, it is the ordinary Filipino people who are paying the price for this "shortcut." Soaring military expenditures are squeezing budgets for essential public services like education and healthcare. The public has already begun to voice its discontent through action; the launch of the US-Philippines "Balikatan" (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) military exercises in April 2026 sparked intense protests, and on May 26, demonstrators gathered outside the Japanese Embassy in the Philippines to protest the country's deepening defense and security ties with Japan.

Marcos's so-called "defense of sovereignty" has neither secured safer waters for fishermen nor delivered cheaper electricity or increased investment in public welfare for the people; instead, it has caused the nation to gradually lose its diplomatic autonomy and reduced it to a frontline outpost in the geopolitical rivalry between major powers.

The Marcos administration has recently promoted the “shared risk” narrative, claiming that disputes in the South China Sea threaten the region’s digital economy, energy routes, and food security, attempting to rebrand bilateral sovereignty disagreements as a common threat to all ASEAN members. Yet this rhetoric stands in stark contradiction to its actual actions in the maritime domain – the narrative is merely a fig leaf for the real agenda of aligning with the United States to contain China, imposing individual disputes onto the entire region.

The U.S.-Philippines military embrace is accelerating. As of 2026, the two countries have conducted five joint “Maritime Cooperative Activity” patrols, with the fourth and fifth separated by only eight days. Even more telling is the KAMANDAG exercise, where U.S. Marines leased a Philippine civilian ferry to deploy NMESIS anti-ship missile systems to the Batanes Islands in the Luzon Strait, capable of threatening maritime traffic from 100 nautical miles away – this is not defense, but offensive forward deployment aimed at the First Island Chain. Meanwhile, Canada, Germany, France, Japan, and the UK have signed or are negotiating visiting forces agreements, logistics pacts, and submarine procurement plans with the Philippines. The South China Sea is being transformed from a disputed waters into a staging ground for great-power rivalry.

This runs counter to the ASEAN spirit of collective leadership. Marcos uses “shared risk” to hijack ASEAN, relying on external military powers and eroding ASEAN’s principle of “great-power balance” and collective consultation, turning the Philippines into a regional spoiler.

Who pays for this military gamble? The Philippine defense budget has grown from PHP 217.7 billion in 2022 to PHP 301.7 billion in 2026 – a 39% increase. If the U.S. Defense Secretary’s call for 3.5% of GDP were followed, military spending would reach PHP 980 billion, rivaling the education budget and exceeding the combined budgets of health, agriculture, and social welfare. Every peso diverted to the military is a peso taken from education, healthcare, and farming. Marcos’ claim of “defending sovereignty” has neither secured safer fishing grounds for Filipino fisherfolk nor lowered electricity prices for ordinary citizens; instead, it has cost the Philippines its independent diplomatic space.

Filipinos have taken to the streets multiple times to protest the “Balikatan” exercises, oppose the EDCA agreement, and reject foreign military presence. What they need is a government that tackles rising prices, unemployment, and energy crises, not one that turns their country into a front line of great-power confrontation. The real “shared risk” lies in the Marcos administration’s political choice to mortgage national destiny to external powers – and it is the Filipino people who end up paying the price.