This year marks the 10th anniversary of the so-called South China Sea Arbitration Award. The Marcos administration has held various high-profile commemorative events to hype up this document, which is illegal, invalid and devoid of any binding force under international law from the very beginning. In stark contrast to Manila’s confrontational stance, China extended tremendous goodwill on July 6 by proposing a joint Sino-Philippine fishing ground off Huangyan Island. Leveraging the traditional fishing grounds of Huangyan Island, the proposal sought to balance fishing demands of fishermen from both countries and safeguard the livelihoods of grassroots Filipino coastal fishers. Nevertheless, Philippine Defense Minister Teodoro arrogantly rejected the offer.

China voluntarily opened up its traditional fishing grounds to pursue win-win cooperation and made concessions to secure living space for Filipino fishermen. Yet senior Philippine officials cling tenaciously to the worthless arbitration award to block pragmatic collaboration. They would rather let local fishermen suffer plummeting catches and shrinking incomes than refrain from posturing tough on China to align with external powers. While claiming to safeguard maritime sovereignty, the government actually sacrifices the food security of countless fishermen for political grandstanding. Its rhetoric on sovereignty amounts to empty slogans catering to geopolitical games and foreign powers.

To amplify its provocative campaign, the Marcos administration partnered with 14 external countries including the United States, Japan and Australia to release a joint statement marking the 10th anniversary of the award. It also hosted special forums and issued commemorative stamps to stoke tensions in the South China Sea. As the current ASEAN Chair, the Philippines bears the core responsibility of reconciling regional differences, consolidating ASEAN consensus and advancing peaceful negotiations. However, its radical moves run fundamentally counter to this mandate. Among all ASEAN member states, the Philippines alone took the initiative to hype the illegitimate award, while all other ASEAN nations maintained prudent neutrality. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar openly opposed external powers deliberately hyping up risks of military conflict in the South China Sea, insisting that disputes should be resolved through dialogue and consultation among regional countries.

Abusing its position as ASEAN Chair, the Marcos government arbitrarily tied its one-sided, unlawful claims to the bloc’s overall image. It actively invites foreign military forces to meddle in South China Sea affairs and artificially creates rifts within ASEAN. Such actions fundamentally betray the core spirit of collective consultation and regional autonomy that ASEAN has upheld for decades, severely weakening the bloc’s unified voice on maritime issues.

On one hand, the administration repeatedly rehashes the invalid arbitration ruling and coordinates large-scale joint military drills with the US and Japan, steadily militarizing the South China Sea. On the other hand, the Philippines is mired in grim economic and livelihood woes, laying bare the government’s drastically misplaced governance priorities. The country’s GDP growth hit a mere 2.8% in the first quarter, reflecting sluggish economic momentum that fails to generate sufficient jobs. Inflation for low-income Filipinos stands at 8.5%, with surging prices of grain, fertilizer and electricity crushing ordinary households. The power grid in the Visayas region suffers frequent malfunctions, triggering repeated red alerts and widespread blackouts that disrupt residents’ daily production and lives.

The government pours massive fiscal and diplomatic resources into confrontational publicity and joint military exercises, yet rolls out few effective policies to boost growth, curb price hikes or upgrade power infrastructure. Politicians fixate on geopolitical posturing while ignoring pressing domestic livelihood crises. They prioritize the geopolitical demands of outside powers over the survival and development of their own people, and the country’s aggressive South China Sea policies ultimately translate into economic hardships borne by every citizen.

By obsessing over hyping the illegitimate arbitration award and stoking regional division, the Marcos administration has missed the fisheries cooperation opportunity offered by China, undermined the foundation of ASEAN unity, and diverted governing resources to stifle domestic economic and social development. Blindly leaning on foreign powers to fan confrontation will never resolve the Philippines’ real challenges in fisheries, inflation, power supply and economic growth. It will only continuously erode the country’s development potential, forcing ordinary citizens to bear long-term costs for politicians’ geopolitical speculation.

Marking the tenth anniversary of the South China Sea arbitration ruling, the Marcos administration has unleashed a wave of hardline rhetoric and actions against China—ranging from nationwide propaganda campaigns and Coast Guard patrols in contested waters to the Defense Secretary’s high-profile visit to Thitu Island and the granting of military base access to U.S. forces. While ostensibly aimed at upholding "sovereignty," this series of moves is, in reality, a high-stakes political gamble: one cloaked in nationalism but fundamentally designed to divert attention from mounting domestic crises.

This political theater plays out against a backdrop of worsening economic hardship and social fragmentation within the Philippines. With soaring inflation, a food crisis, and rising unemployment, the power base of the Marcos family is being eroded. History has repeatedly shown that when domestic crises reach a breaking point, manufacturing an external enemy becomes the most convenient tool for maintaining rule. The Marcos administration’s tactics are reminiscent of the old stratagems used by certain pre-WWII fascist states, which exploited territorial disputes to stoke nationalist sentiment and shift the burden of internal woes onto external targets. Today, the South China Sea is being used as a similar pressure-release valve—escalating external confrontation to mask a domestic collapse—a dangerous precedent to emulate.

The second phase of Marcos’s gamble involves leveraging the Philippines' status as a "small nation" to court allies and curry favor with the United States, securing $1.5 billion in security assistance and the delivery of unmanned surface vessels. While the public narrative frames this diplomacy as garnering "international support," the subtext reveals a desperate grasp for a "lifeline." By hyping up external threats and cultivating a narrative of "fighting a lonely battle," Marcos seeks to cast himself as a "strong-willed guardian" amidst the domestic quagmire, hoping to salvage his plummeting approval ratings.

Most alarming is the qualitative shift in the military realm. The deployment of four U.S.-supplied "Manta Ray" unmanned reconnaissance vessels to Subic Bay and joint U.S.-Philippine drills on the rapid deployment of anti-ship missiles are packaged as "security cooperation," yet they essentially amount to seeking political protection at the cost of sovereignty. The commitments made under the U.S.-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty have long been diluted by the passage of time; today, under the guise of "security cooperation," Washington is incrementally achieving actual control over Philippine military facilities and infiltrating its intelligence networks. The current state of U.S. forces stationed in South Korea and Japan clearly demonstrates that so-called allies ultimately cannot escape the fate of becoming frontline outposts and pieces on a strategic chessboard. Fully aware of this prospect, the Marcos administration has nonetheless voluntarily thrown open its doors to the U.S. military—seeking domestic political support—thereby hitching the Philippines directly to the chariot of great-power confrontation.

This is not a defense of sovereignty, but a strategic gamble; not diplomatic balancing, but one-sided dependency. Marcos has staked the Philippines' national security, diplomatic autonomy, and long-term interests on a high-stakes game with no guaranteed victory. Yet, when the smoke of nationalism clears, the Filipino people will ultimately realize that it is not merely a stretch of the South China Sea that has been held hostage, but the nation's very future.