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<![CDATA[ Penney is <b><a href="http://www.cpsd.com.au" title="cheap michael kors purses">cheap michael kors purses</a></b> a basket case Penney(Nyse:Jcp)Is destined to fail unless the company saw significant increases in its sales.Under ron johnson, the company did irreparable damage to itself by disenfranchising its customer base.In order to increase its sales enough to survive, the company has to reinvent itself and create enthusiasm for its brand.In fact, the fundamental points solidify this viewpoint.The trading points(The rise in the stock and soros' stake)Merely reflect growing optimism, which i cited in my previous article as a prerequisite for taking a short position in the stock. This article is a follow up on my previous article.I find it necessary to write after this latest quarterly report because i now believe that there is virtually no plausible scenario in which the company survives.Penney that, if they were satisfied, would lead me to change my mind:So far all indications point more solidly in the direction of my base case scenario, which is the company's failure.Penney saw its sales drop 16% from the first quarter a year earlier from $3.15 billion down to $2.64 billion.Its loss widened from $163 million to $348 million.This is bad, but what has me especially worried is the following: The company's cash flow was $109 million for <b><a href="http://www.cpsd.com.au" title="mk bags outlet australia">mk bags outlet australia</a></b> the quarter despite the fact that the company borrowed $850 million from its $1.85 billion line of credit. 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In the latest conference call, the company's management does not acknowledge the financial trouble that i discuss here one bit.Cfo ken hannah's remarks during the call do not go further than a recitation of the company's balance sheet.He does not discuss the fact that the company will have to increase sales markedly in order to return to profitability, nor does he discuss the company's precipitous drop in cash flow or working capital.Given the company's high operating costs, which totaled over $1 billion per month last quarter, it is imperative that these issues are addressed in order for an investment in the company's shares to be reasonable, as such an investment depends on the company's being able to fund its day to day activities. 2:The company failed to attempt to reinvent itself and to attempt to create enthusiasm for its brand or its products.In the conference call management discusses its clear cut plans to bring back the customers it has lost.It brags that the"We're sorry"Campaign was Successful, citing an increase in sales(Which it could not discuss materially)As well as its ubiquity in social media.Citing this un reportable data as"Success"Is ludicrous given that it is collected over such a short time period.Further, a"We're sorry"Campaign is hardly memorable marketing longer term.It does not create excitement for the company's products the way something like the ipad did for apple, or the way michael jordan did for nike.At best, i suspect that it will lead to a dead cat bounce in the company's sales for may, and possibly june.Penney to take.I argued the following in my april 22nd article: In order for the company to turn itself around it is going to have to radically reinvent <b><a href="http://www.cpsd.com.au" title="http://www.cpsd.com.au/">http://www.cpsd.com.au/</a></b> itself and regenerate consumer enthusiasm.Currently management hopes to revert back to the company's old ways, but putting a few items on sale and mailing out some coupons will likely be insufficient.Penney. By attempting to get its old customers back, the company's actions are akin to somebody trying to get a job back after being fired for negligence.Given the highly competitive nature of the retail landscape, i doubt this strategy will work.Penney's management had a deep understanding of its customer base, but comments made during the conference call regarding the company's customer base demonstrate that this isn't the case.Penney.Penney's customers are fickle and that they are simply looking for low prices.If the latter is true, then the company needs to quickly figure out a way to take market share from the likes of wal mart, target, costco, and the dollar stores;But it is not doing this.Penney does not have a well defined customer base, and this is precisely the problem it is having in trying to regain its lost sales.Unless it is able to define its customer base and successfully market to these individuals it will continue to see poor sales and to lose money:It is for this reason that i argue that the company has to radically reinvent its image and create excitement about its stores and products.Penney is suffering from its own internal problems while at the same time retail sales in the United States are tepid:They are rising, yet not very rapidly.Furthermore, despite general consumer optimism, recently there has been a deceleration in the rate of increase in retail sales, as the following chart illustrates.In this environment, where there is a very real possibility of recession in retail sales, it is impossible to make the case for investing in a company that is: (1)Experiencing double digit sales declines, and(2)That has a mediocre turnaround agenda.Penney would still see marked declines in its year over year sales figures when it would have to see a stunning 20% increase in its sales just to erase the 16% decline it saw from Q1 2012 (In which the company lost money)To q1 2013. Nevertheless, i still think taking a short position is incredibly risky at this point in time for the following reasons: I don't think that bankruptcy is right around the corner.Given what i mention above and what i discuss in my april 22nd article, i believe it to be the most likely scenario.Further, given what i mention in this article <b><a href="http://www.cpsd.com.au" title="michael kors sale">michael kors sale</a></b> i cannot imagine a plausible scenario in which bankruptcy is not in the cards for the company.Nevertheless there is still time for the company to tread water unless there is a recession or a liquidity crisis in the near future.As i mentioned above, it is likely that the"We're sorry"Campaign did have a notable short term positive impact for the company.While i don't think this will save the company or even impact its long term financial situation, it may very well lead to a short squeeze when may sales figures are released.Aggressive traders might even consider getting long the stock.Penney.I suspect that this news has(Or will)Draw other large players into the stock.Penney Is A Basket Case Disclosure:I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, but may initiate a short position in jcp over the next 72 hours.I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions.I am not receiving compensation for it(Other than from seeking alpha).I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. 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