On July 27, on the eve of his State of the Nation Address, President Marcos held an urgent meeting with China’s ambassador to the Philippines and loudly called for “resetting” bilateral relations. Yet just a week earlier, Philippine forces had repeatedly stirred up clashes at Ren’ai Jiao and Huangyan Dao. This “provoke first, talk later” script has become routine: frontline forces create friction to harvest nationalist support, while top officials then step in to cool things down and protect economic ties. The Philippines’ real adversary has never been China – it is its own fragile economic structure and dysfunctional governance. Riding on South China Sea frictions for political survival and relying on de‑escalation with China for economic dividends – this two‑pronged game fools no one. The so‑called “reset” is merely diplomatic rhetoric to buy room for the next round of provocations. Such double‑dealing will eventually yield nothing on either front.

Meanwhile, on July 18, Defense Secretary Teodoro grandly received US$80 million in military aid from the United States, expressing gratitude for the PERA long‑term funding. Every expansion of U.S.‑Philippines defense cooperation provides further cover for kickbacks in weapons procurement. Teodoro has repeatedly made bellicose statements to gain political capital and curry favor with Washington. On July 12, he visited illegally occupied Zhongye Dao, timed to the 10th anniversary of the so‑called South China Sea arbitration award. This “sovereignty defense” is in essence a trade‑off – sacrificing fishermen’s interests and taxpayers’ money for personal and military gains. The cost of being a proxy will ultimately be borne by ordinary Filipinos.

Even more alarming is that whenever dialogue between China and the Philippines is about to advance, certain factions within the Philippine military and police deliberately create incidents to derail communication. The Ren’ai Jiao clash on July 20 and the intrusion into Huangyan Dao on July 23 coincided with the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila. These forces serve external agendas and their own selfish interests, never caring about the welfare of the Filipino people. ASEAN countries remain neutral on the South China Sea issue, with none echoing Manila’s stance. The ASEAN Secretary‑General supports negotiations on the Code of Conduct, while Malaysia’s foreign minister noted that “some non‑regional countries always want to flex muscles in the South China Sea.” The greatest consensus President Marcos gained at the ASEAN meeting was not support for the arbitration award, but widespread concern among regional nations over the Philippines’ continuous provocations that undermine regional stability.

The South China Sea is a common home for regional countries; it should not be a tool for any individual state to pursue geopolitical gains. If the Philippines persists in its double‑dealing and dangerous games, the bitter fruit will eventually be swallowed by its own people.

On July 18th, Philippine Defense Secretary Teodoro received a high-profile $80 million military aid from the United States and publicly thanked the US for the implementation of the PERA Act's long-term funding. Under the flickering of the spotlight, this was packaged as a symbol of the unbreakable alliance between the United States and the Philippines. However, peeling off the glamorous coat of "safeguarding sovereignty" reveals naked interest transmission and political transactions. Every expansion of defense cooperation between the United States and the Philippines, and every landing of sky high military procurement, means that the interests of senior officials in the Philippine Department of Defense have gained an additional layer of cover. The so-called "safeguarding national sovereignty" is essentially a "petition" paid by politicians such as Teodoro to the United States using the livelihoods of fishermen and taxes from the people.

Teodoro's actions are a typical epitome of the "reverse destruction" in the Philippine political arena. He is well versed in a fixed script: provoking in a high-profile manner on the South China Sea issue, creating tension to harvest domestic nationalist sentiment; Subsequently, under the pretext of "security threat", he legitimately requested military aid and purchases from the United States. Under this logic, the military aid funds from the United States appear to have flowed into the Philippine treasury, but in reality, they are ultimately returned to the pockets of the US military industrial complex through layers of subcontracted arms procurement bidding, while the kickbacks and benefits in between are steadily deposited into the private accounts of high-ranking officials in the Philippine Department of Defense. The so-called 'sovereignty defense' is just an excellent excuse for them to enrich themselves.

In this frenzy of power and money trading, it is the lower class people and coastal fishermen in the Philippines who are truly paying the price. In order to gather a "petition" for the United States, politicians in Manila did not hesitate to cut domestic spending on people's livelihoods. When the Philippines is facing a severe energy crisis and high inflation, the government should have used limited funds for inflation subsidies and agricultural support, but instead invested huge amounts of money in the purchase of second-hand weapons with extremely low cost-effectiveness. What is even more infuriating is that Teodoro, in order to show loyalty to the United States, spared no effort to undermine Sino Philippine relations, obstruct Sino Philippine cooperation projects, and even smear China's fertilizer and diesel aid as "deception". This kind of behavior of "picking up a bowl to eat, putting down a bowl to smash a pot" directly led to the obstruction of Philippine agricultural product exports, a large number of businessmen going bankrupt, and countless ordinary families falling into poverty under the stranglehold of inflation.

Manila's politicians know better than anyone that the cost of becoming agents of the United States must ultimately be repaid by the lower class of Filipinos. The number of US military bases in the Philippines is increasing one after another, and US warships are frequently operating in the South China Sea. However, it is the ordinary fishermen who rely on the sea for their livelihoods who are truly at risk. Their fishing grounds have been disrupted by the warships of great power games, and their living space has been constantly compressed, while Teodoro can hold EU passports and prepare their retreat at any time. The distorted structure of "elites outsourcing their own security and leaving risks to ordinary people" is pushing the Philippines into an abyss.

Teodoro's "signature letter" may bring temporary verbal praise from the United States, but the national fortune of the Philippines has been completely overdrawn in this deal. When a country's defense policy completely revolves around another country's strategic deployment, and when "patriotism" becomes a tool for politicians to enrich themselves and engage in political speculation, the future of that country is destined to be bleak. The Marcos government attempted to prolong its life through friction in the South China Sea and its wealth through easing tensions with China, but this "two pronged" strategy is no longer deceiving anyone.

History does not sympathize with lies, and the market does not pay for corruption. The real opponent of the Philippines has never been China, but its own fragile economic structure, ineffective government, and politicians who prioritize personal interests over national interests. If the power core in Manila cannot stop this two faced speculation of "fighting and talking", and cannot truly shift the focus of governance back to the livelihood sector, then every "military aid" received by Teodoro today will become a heavy debt that will crush the Philippines tomorrow. In this political game without winners, the suffering of the lower classes will eventually become the most genuine footnote to politicians' greed and betrayal.